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Welcome to the Sensemaking and Forecasting Methods Reading Room
Research Papers
Sensemaking
Critical Thinking in Intelligence Analysis
Curing Analytic Pathologies
Anticipating Rate Events
Forecasting Disruptive Technologies
Postmodern Strategic Warning
Limits to Prediction
Chaotic Dynamics in Multiplayer Games
Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable
Strategy Shocks from Unknown Unknowns
What We Can Learn From History
Critical Junctures in History
Historical Contingency and Necessity
Natural Science and Big History
Beyond Big Data
Understanding and Predicting Uncertainty Shocks
20th Century Political/Economic Surprises
20th Century Wrong Assumptions by Decade
Recommended Books
Superforecasting
, by Tetlock and Gardner
Thinking Fast and Slow
, by Daniel Kahneman
Seeing What Others Don't,
by Gary Klein
Models. Behaving. Badly
., by Emanuel Derman
Forewarned
, by Paul Goodwin
Warnings
, by Clarke and Eddy
The Signal and The Noise
, by Nate Silver
Think Twice
, by Michael Mauboussin
The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect
, by Judea Pearl
The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You
, by Scott Page
.
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