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Global Macro Analysis and Asset Allocation Insights
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"What Do We Know About Escaping From the Persistent Deflation Regime?"
Since 1997, our purpose has been to help investors, corporate, and government leaders better anticipate, more accurately assess, and adapt in time to emerging macro threats.
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Here's a brief description of our forecasting process:
We focus on providing insights about the evolving dynamics of the global macro system and the emergent threats they produce that lie beyond the detection horizon and analytical capabilities of quantitative algorithmic methods. We then translate these into probability forecasts for different macro regimes, and use them to adjust our model portfolio's asset allocation.
Compared to new quantitative data, new qualitative data diffuses more slowly across market participants, and is only gradually incorporated into asset prices.
This time delay, plus the accuracy of their mental models, enables astute investors to avoid large losses by taking action before the market's dominant narrative changes.
To achieve this goal, we use a method called Multipath Analysis, in which we collect and synthesize high value information (threat indicators and surprises) in the areas of technology, health and disease, energy and the environment, the economy, national security, society, and politics.
Their complex interaction over time cause the effects we later observe in the form of market narratives and investor beliefs, from which emerge financial market valuations, volumes, returns — and, for some, unexpected surprises.