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Global Macro Analysis and Asset Allocation Insights
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"What Do We Know About Escaping From the Persistent Deflation Regime?"
Since 1997, our purpose has been to help investors, corporate, and government leaders better anticipate, more accurately assess, and adapt in time to emerging macro threats.
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Here's a brief description of our forecasting process:
We provide insights about the evolving dynamics of the global macro system, and early warning of emerging threats that lie beyond the detection horizon and analytical capabilities of quantitative algorithmic methods. We translate our insights into probability forecasts for different macro regimes, and use them to adjust our model portfolio's asset allocation.
Accurate foresight comes not just from good forecasting skills, but also from asking the right questions. Arguably, the second is more difficult.
Compared to new quantitative data, new qualitative data diffuses more slowly across market participants, and is only gradually incorporated into asset prices.
This time delay, plus the accuracy of their mental models and forecasts, enables astute investors to avoid large losses and achieve higher returns by taking action before the market's dominant narrative changes.
To help investors achieve these goals, we use a method called Multipath Analysis. We collect and combine high value information (threat indicators and surprises) in the areas of technology, health and disease, energy and the environment, the economy, national security, society, politics, and financial markets.
The complex interactions of trends and uncertainties in these areas cause the effects we later observe in the form of market narratives and investor beliefs, from which emerge financial market valuations and returns.
This approach enables us to ask the right questions, accurately forecast their answers, and synthesize their implications for subscribers.