Index Investor Feature Articles

Sep18: Our Asset Class Valuation Methodologies

Oct18: Why After a Period of High Uncertainty Persistent Deflation is More Likely than High Inflation

Nov18: Examining the Arguments for and Against a Transition to the High Inflation Regime

Dec18: The Fed Calls Time on the United States' Hidden Debt Crisis: Public Sector Pensions

Jan19: Understanding the Critical Difference Between Macro Threats and Threat Signatures

Feb19: Understanding and Predicting Uncertainty Shocks: An Update to Our 2010 Article

Mar19: Improving Your Forecasting Skills: Defining Questions, Establishing Base Rates, and Weighing New Evidence to Update Probabilities

Apr19: The Role of Conviction Narratives in Forecasting: What Regime Will the Macro System be in Three Years from Now?

May19: Multipath Analysis: A Systematic Process for Reducing the Dimensionality of Global Macro Forecasting Challenges

Jun19: Drivers of China-US Dynamics and Outcomes Over the Next Seven Years

Jul19: The Potential Impact of Artificial Intelligence Technologies on Macro Regime Probabilities and Broad Asset Class Returns

Aug19: The Next Downturn: How Different? How Deep? How Long?

Sep19: Future Labor Productivity Growth: The Supply Side Secular Stagnation Story

Oct19: The Macro and Asset Allocation Implications of Environmental Trends and Uncertainties

Nov19: Will the New Flows of Assets Into ESG Funds Produce Alpha for Investors?

Dec19: What Do We Know About Escaping the Persistent Deflation Regime?

Jan20: Global Macro Risk Dynamics in the 2020s and Beyond

Feb20: Civilization Decline and Collapse: What are the Warning Signs?

Mar20: Why Did Markets Take So Long to Respond to COVID19?

Apr20: COVID's Impact in 2023: Trends, Uncertainties, Scenarios, and Forecast Probabilities

May20: The Complex Dynamics of Our New Cold War: A Brief Net Assessment

Jun20: Making Good Decisions in Highly Uncertain Situations

Jul20: Can the US Successfully Meet the Threat Posed by Worsening Inequality?

Aug20: Joe Biden Wants to Remove Carbon From US Electricity Generation by 2035. Is That Realistic?

Sep20: An Assessment of COVID-19 Vaccine Uncertainties and Probabilities

Oct20: Will Xi Jinping Launch a Surprise Attack on Taiwan Before the 20th Party Congress of the CCP in November 2022? And What Happens if He Does?

Nov20: Guest Feature: This Time It's Different: Avoiding the Costly Mistake of Not Taking Bitcoin Seriously, by Ned Horsey

Dec20: The Case Against Bitcoin

Jan21: Annual Update of Our Detailed Three Year Macro Regime Forecast

Feb21: Ten Years Later: Threats to Political Legitimacy Have Grown More Dangerous

Mar21: The Probability of a US-China War Over Taiwan Is Increasing

Apr21: Will Reskilling Work? And What Happens If It Fails?

May21: Faster Productivity Growth Is Critical. But Will It Happen?

Jun21: Thoughts for New Graduates: The Impact of System Factors, Skill, and Luck on Your Future

Jul21: Asset Allocation in a Complex World (15 years of model portfolio results across six currencies)

Aug21: Should You Add an Allocation to Infrastructure to Your Portfolio?

Sep21: Should You Invest in Grains?

Oct/Nov21: The Essence of Successful Investing and Risk Management: Forming and Updating Accurate Beliefs

Dec/Jan22: Underfunded Public Sector Pensions: The Voldemort of Emerging Threats

Q1-2022: The World Turned Upside Down: Current Situation, Critical Uncertainties, Most Likely and Most Dangerous Macro Scenarios, Financial Market Regime Probabilities, and Their Portfolio Implications