Welcome to the Evidence File


We use a number of frameworks to guide the information search, analysis, and synthesis processes that lead to our forecast conclusions. Graphical descriptions of both of these are shown below. The first depicts the dynamic and often sequential nature of major changes in different elements of the integrated macro system that produce the emergent effects we observe in financial markets and asset class valuations and returns. The second is Peter Pirolli and Stuart Card's description of the stocks and flows in the information and sense making processes used by intelligence analysts. A critical part of the latter is what Pirolli and Card term the "Evidence File", which contains information that has been judged to be of high value, and thus contribute to the generation and evaluation of hypotheses.

Every month, we publish the latest additions to the Index Investor's evidence file, which we use to inform updates to our forecasts. In our methodology, new information is valuable insofar as it provides an updated indicator of how close we are to a critical threshold, or it is surprising and causes us to question the structure of our overall system model (e.g., the existence of another critical threshold we should monitor, or the range of possible outcomes for a key uncertainty).

To provide subscribers with a longer perspective on significant technological, economic, environmental, cyber, health, national security, social, political, and financial markets developments, as well as their trajectories and dynamics, in this section of our website we present each our collection of significant new information, arranged chronologically by subject, with the most recent month first.

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